I was in Taipei as the first trip of Nationalist chair Lien Chan was about to begin and heard nothing but dismay from members of the government and their supporters. Dr. I-chung Lai of a think tank lamented that Lien Chan was "providing a ladder for China to step down" from world-wide disapproval of the anti-secession law. He correctly feared a propaganda victory for Beijing in the visits of Mr. Lien and James Soong, chairman of the People First party, who arrived on the mainland Thursday. But more than that, Dr. Lai foresaw even greater losses. The purchase of advanced weapons  from America would be doomed by the opposition in Parliament, he lamented, and so would  the new constitution, well in the works, designed to replace an antiquated document from 1946,  without alarming China.

However, it would alarm China, which hates referendums in Taiwan. They smack too much of independence. But why do the Chinese care so much about an island of 23 million people? They care, explained Dr. Parris Chang, deputy secretary general of the National Security Council, because if Taiwan goes, that could stir up Tibet, Xinchang and Inner Mongolia. They also care  because the Taiwan Strait is a critical trade route, especially from the Middle East. They cannot risk Taiwan joining forces with Japan  to deny China  access  to this waterway.

The most sensible voice I heard on the problem was that of Su Chi, a Nationalist member of parliament, who said he is willing to accept Beijing's single, unalterable condition for talks with Taiwan -- that both sides agree they are part of one China but with different interpretations. A master of "creative ambiguity," Mr. Su gladly acknowledged all this but added that he  recognizes "one historical China, one cultural China, but not one political or legal China." When Beijing harps on reunification, he pretends not to hear. This makes room, he said, to maneuver.

 What is needed now is a program advanced by Michigan University's Ken Lieberthal, currently at the Brookings Institution. It has also been endorsed by Lien Chan, who did indeed score  impressively in China, ending hostilities between his party and the Communists dating back to the 1940s. The plan would formalize an agreement designed to last 20, 30 or even 50 years, during which China would pledge not to attack Taiwan and Taiwan would vow not to declare independence. During that time they could work on technical matters, such as double taxation of Taiwanese companies with plants on the mainland, and let the future unfold, with the hope for real change in China. Leave to another generation the settlement of sovereignty and keep ever in mind the  spirit of federal autonomy that animates the European Union.

It would not be easy. Politics in Beijing are not as monolithic as they seem, and Taiwan is teeming with democracy. Indeed, supporters and opponents of Lien Chan threw a few fists at each other at the airport as he was leaving for China. (I flew out the same day but missed the melee). They showed up again for his return along with thousands of police.